This article originally appeared in The Detroit News March 11, 2025.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted every aspect of life. In the moment, it was hard to predict what would come next. But in May 2020, I tried.

I wrote down 25 predictions about the pandemic and government lockdowns, and I sent them to colleagues. I covered politics, policy, fraud, the medical industry, religious life, entertainment, sports and education. The criteria: Each prediction was specific, and I could not hedge my bets with conflicting guesses.

How did I do? Five years after the start of the pandemic, my results are a little better than a coin flip. Just more than half of my predictions were correct, while many were wrong, and a handful are unclear. Here are a few, edited for space.

What I got right:

Prediction: “United States citizens will face international travel restrictions through all of 2020. Pandemic rules for domestic air travel will last more than three months.”

Result: International travel restrictions, such as taking a coronavirus test, lasted well into 2021. Similarly, the TSA forced domestic fliers to wear face masks, until a judge ended the requirement in April 2022.

Prediction: “We will see a record-high spike in gun purchases.”

Result: Americans purchased a record 21.8 million guns in 2020, according to The Trace. Gun purchases have since tapered off but are still higher than pre-pandemic numbers.

Prediction: “More than one state will shift to vote by mail.”

Result: Since 2021, California, Nevada and Vermont all shifted to conducting their elections by mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Prediction: “At least one college in Michigan will shut down permanently.”

Result: In 2023, Finlandia University, the U.P.’s only private college, shut its doors. The school blamed declining enrollment and “unbearable” debt.

What I got wrong:

Prediction: “We will see dozens of fraudulent filings for government pandemic assistance.”

Result: I underestimated the problem by several orders of magnitude. Government assistance programs paid employers in an attempt to mitigate the economic damage of government lockdowns. And there was plenty of fraud.

A 2023 audit found the Small Business Administration disbursed $200 billion to potentially fraudulent actors, resulting in hundreds of convictions. The Department of Labor says 2,000 people were charged with unemployment insurance fraud. Here in Michigan, the Michigan Education Association and its insurance arm improperly obtained $12 million in aid.

Prediction: “No fans in sports venues for the rest of 2020.”

Result: Sports venues imposed attendance limits in 2020, some even using cardboard cutouts to create the illusion of a crowd. But fans were attending NFL games by year’s end.

Prediction: “A major motion picture about COVID-19 will feature either Steve Carrell, Tom Hanks, Brad Pitt or Julia Roberts.”

Result: No such movie happened, although the straight-to-streaming movie “Songbird” featured Demi Moore, who was just up for an Oscar (for a different movie).

Prediction: “Unionization rates will be relatively unaffected.”

Result: Union membership in the U.S. has been declining for decades. In 2020, membership jumped to 10.8% of workers — the first increase since the Great Recession. But by 2024, membership fell to a record low of 9.9%.

Prediction: “One state will embrace government transparency by providing open-source record production.”

Result: While I expected most states to regress on open government, I hoped some would embrace modern techniques when releasing digital records. Alas, no.

Years later, some predictions seem obvious, others wildly off. I failed to foresee vaccine mandates, school closures, learning losses or how long the lockdowns would last. I also did not expect public officials to toss aside pandemic plans and make the rules up on the fly.

What stands out isn’t just what I got right or wrong — it’s how much we didn’t see coming.

Permission to reprint this blog post in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided that the author (or authors) and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy are properly cited.