An upcoming Mackinac Center report will explore the danger posed to Michigan’s energy grid by the state’s rushed transition to weak alternative power sources. But we can already see a looming disaster in projections from the Midcontinent Independent Systems Operator.

MISO’s 2023 Regional Resource Assessment depicts what the system operator calls a “resource gap” between accredited capacity (supply) and future load (demand) for most of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is not shown on this chart as it falls under a different subdivision of MISO territory, though it too has a resource gap.

The orange bars, for “demand load,” represent what MISO projects as the Lower Peninsula’s electricity demand. The system operator has multiple scenarios, and the chart represents the one with the lowest demand.

Even at that lowest estimate, Michigan’s supply is multiple gigawatts below meeting expected demand. When the quantity supplied is less than the quantity demanded and prices are fixed (as they are in Michigan), a shortage results. There will be blackouts.

What’s behind the insufficient supply? Utilities are replacing dependable sources of energy with less dependable ones. “Controllable, dispatchable resources are being retired and replaced primarily with weather-dependent, non-dispatchable, and variable generation types to achieve carbon reduction goals. These weather-dependent generators are increasing reliability risks,” a senior representative of MISO told the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy, Climate and Grid Security last September.

“Certain resource attributes — such as the ability to start up expediently, ramp output up or down quickly, and produce electricity at a high volume for long periods of time — are required to maintain reliability,” MISO told Congress. “Those attributes have historically been provided by the traditional resources that are now being retired at an accelerating pace, and very few planned new generators possess them.”

“Because planned retirements continue to outpace planned additions, the regional reliability risk remains,” MISO says in its Regional Resource Assessment. In plain English, state regulators and utilities are working together to replace coal (and sometimes natural gas) with wind and solar power, even though those alternative sources can’t possibly meet the state’s energy demands. It’s a forced transition from dependable power sources to less dependable ones.

Can Michigan’s utilities simply buy electricity from nearby states’ grids to make up the shortfall?

That appears unlikely. Unfortunately, our neighboring states are facing the same problem. The system operator expects states across the Great Lakes region to have their own gaps in 2027.

And things only get worse in 2032.

With the whole region suffering shortfalls, every state will try to buy from its neighbors. Michigan will be one of the many states scrambling to find enough electricity to keep the lights on.

The Mackinac Center will expand on these risks in its soon-to-be-published report. Michigan’s rushed energy transition poses an imminent danger to residents and needs to be reconsidered before it leads to the collapse of the Great Lakes region’s energy grid.

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