The model also includes some self-regulating behavior. It is unlikely that any sector of the economy can grow at 10-20 percent per year indefinitely. Certainly, a 20-percent increase in alternative school enrollment would be difficult to handle, although with some excess capacity and the ability to lease space in other buildings, it may be possible. To account for this supply constraint, the model places a limit of 15 percent per year on migration to alternative schools. Thus, in the first year migration is to be constrained to only 15 percent. In subsequent years, as the desired migration drops to 10, 9, and then 8 percent per year, the migration limit becomes less of a factor.

In the last three columns of Table 7, we see that the projected migration between the traditional public schools and alternative schools ranges between 0 and 43,000 students per year. This equates to a migration of approximately 2 percent of traditional public school students each year, a relatively small amount, and leaves the government school sector at 1.4 million students in the year 2005. Alternative schools experience an annual increase in their enrollment of approximately 15 percent each year due to the tax credit, producing a total enrollment of nearly 600,000 in 2005. These figures are shown on the next page in Table 8, which compares the enrollment trends under the current system and the UTTC plan.

Table 8. Summary of Enrollment, Current System vs. UTTC Plan
Current System UTTC Plan
Year Traditional Public School Students Alternative School Students Migration Traditional Public School Students Alternative School Students
1998 1,650,000 220,000 - 1,650,000 220,000
1999 1,662,739 224,400 33,000 1,629,739 257,400
2000 1,675,421 228,888 69,036 1,606,385 297,924
2001 1,688,031 233,466 98,828 1,589,202 332,294
2002 1,700,552 238,135 132,058 1,568,495 370,193
2003 1,712,967 242,898 165,375 1,547,592 408,273
2004 1,725,255 247,756 202,120 1,523,135 449,875
2005 1,737,393 252,711 242,609 1,494,784 495,319
2006 1,749,357 257,765 282,234 1,467,123 539,999
2007 1,761,121 262,920 325,434 1,435,687 588,354
2008 1,772,654 268,179 325,434 1,447,220 593,613

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