Table 7 on the next page shows the predicted number of students who would migrate from traditional public schools to alternative schools. Table 7 begins with the base-case assumption of total students, government school students, and alternative school students. Since the main dynamic in consumer choice in the education market is between the traditional public schools and private schools, the model is constrained to allow movement between these two sectors only, with the smaller charter school and home school sectors left alone. While this assumption is artificial, the relative size of these sectors suggests that a relaxation of the assumption will matter little in terms of the overall cost.98 From the current system alternative school student enrollment of 220,000, we apply a smoothed desired migration factor. Table 7 indicates that the migration in the first year, before the UTTC is implemented, is zero. This indicates that there is no migration between the two sectors. In the second year, the largest desired migration comes into effect: a 17-percent increase in demand for alternative schools.

Table 7. Calculation of Migration Under UTTC Plan
Current System UTTC Plan
Year Traditional Public School Students Alternative School Students Smoothed Desired Migration Rate Smoothed Desired Migration Migration Limit Projected Migration Cumulative Migration Total Alternative School Students
1998 1,650,000 220,000 - - 33,000 - - 220,000
1999 1,662,739 224,400 0.17 37,400 33,000 33,000 33,000 257,400
2000 1,675,421 228,888 0.14 36,036 38,610 36,036 69,036 297,924
2001 1,688,031 233,466 0.10 29,792 44,689 29,792 98,828 332,294
2002 1,700,552 238,135 0.10 33,229 49,844 33,229 132,058 370,193
2003 1,712,967 242,898 0.09 33,317 55,529 33,317 165,375 408,273
2004 1,725,255 247,756 0.09 36,745 61,241 36,745 202,120 449,876
2005 1,737,393 252,711 0.09 40,489 67,481 40,489 242,609 495,320
2006 1,749,357 257,765 0.08 39,626 74,298 39,626 282,234 539,999
2007 1,761,121 262,920 0.08 43,200 81,000 43,200 325,434 588,354
2008 1,772,654 268,179 - - 88,253 - 325,434 593,613
Migration Limit Factor = 15% (applied to previous year’s alternative school enrollment)

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